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Do these investing strategies actually work?

Ten-year backtests of copying famous funds, insiders and Congress, after trading costs and a 28% tax on gains, with an honest verdict.

SPY buy & hold

The benchmark: S&P 500 ETF, dividends reinvested.

+14.9%/yr vs S&P +14.9% benchmark

SPY + trend filter

SPY, but in cash whenever SPY closes below its 200-day average.

+10.9%/yr vs S&P +14.9% Not proven

Copy Berkshire (top 10)

Top 10 stocks of each new Berkshire 13F, bought the day after filing.

+11.6%/yr vs S&P +14.9% Not proven

Copy Pershing (top 10)

Top 10 stocks of each new Pershing Square 13F.

+12.8%/yr vs S&P +14.9% Not proven

13F consensus (12 funds)

10 stocks most held and most recently bought across 12 concentrated funds, rebalanced 47 days after each quart

+17.4%/yr vs S&P +14.9% Not proven

13F consensus + trend

Same, in cash while SPY is below its 200-day average.

+13.1%/yr vs S&P +14.9% Not proven

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